Why I won't go to any more record shows

[Birdy]

As a vinyl FANATIC, I've never abandoned buying vinyl. And you know which era was THE BEST for vinyl purchases? The period 1992-2005, the years of the CD craze, where everyone was throwing out their vinyls to get these small shiny disks. Clearly, the best deals I did in terms of rare gems at a low price, belong to that sadly bygone era.

The problem with the new vinyl "come back" is the quality of the new pressings. High demand triggers overproduction, that leads pressing machines working highly above their capacity; sometimes they truely work over the edge. There are few remaining manufacturers worldwide -as the production was dead few years ago- with inability or unwillingness (out of prudency) to make larger scale investments and most machines are old and poorly maintained. Trained personnel and maintainers are also scarce as hell. So in a way, hype (at this particular moment in time) is destroying the product...

Agree with you that for the USED market, the best was the years you describe as a lot of people had abandoned vinyl and many younger buyers were not yet into it. However with the exception of some audiophile labels, the NEW vinyl market was all but gone.

I have to disagree about the quality of the pressings though. While there are some defects as will happen with any manufacturing of this kind, I find most new pressings to be incredibly good.

[ronmac]

If there is any truth about that (and I really do doubt it), it's because they take a much bigger margin on vinyls than they do for CDs... Because CDs still outsell vinyls by 50 to 1

And downloads have outnumbered CD purchases for the past two years. That will only increase. Will there eventually be a day when there's no such thing as a physical music medium? I'm guessing yes, but I hope not.

[rcarlberg]

The problem with the new vinyl "come back" is the quality of the new pressings. High demand triggers overproduction, that leads pressing machines working highly above their capacity; sometimes they truely work over the edge. There are few remaining manufacturers worldwide -as the production was dead few years ago- with inability or unwillingness (out of prudency) to make larger scale investments and most machines are old and poorly maintained. Trained personnel and maintainers are also scarce as hell. So in a way, hype (at this particular moment in time) is destroying the product...

Yet, scarcity and high cost only feed the hipster value.

[Facelift]

you and I don't define as hipsters, because we've become used to be unhip old farts for decades, but there is much snobbery amongst the 20-sumthin' and they fully qualify as hipsters (though nobody will claim it overtly)



If there is any truth about that (and I really do doubt it), it's because they take a much bigger margin on vinyls than they do for CDs... Because CDs still outsell vinyls by 50 to 1

It's between 4 and 5 to 1 so far this year. Vinyl has made some serious inroads. Vinyl is expected surpass CD sales within the next five years.

http://riaa.com/media/238E8AC7-3810-...DEB46A3C6E.pdf

http://time.com/money/4056464/vinyl-...ming-revenues/

http://www.theverge.com/2015/9/28/94...aa-2015-report

[ronmac]

Vinyl is expected surpass CD sales within the next five years.

Nonsense. That will never happen. The rate of sales may increase more than CD, because, one could argue that the two mediums are on different arcs (vinyl, upward -- CDs, downward). But, there is no way the volume of vinyl units being sold will surpass CDs, unless the CD medium disappears altogether.

[Facelift]

Nonsense. That will never happen. The rate of sales may increase more than CD, because, one could argue that the two mediums are on different arcs (vinyl, upward -- CDs, downward). But, there is no way the volume of vinyl units being sold will surpass CDs, unless the CD medium disappears altogether.

It will probably happen by 2020 - maybe 2021. As a product, CDs are approaching obsolescence. There's streaming for that, now. I'm not talking about the specialists like many in here, but in general, overall.

[JJ88]

Never in a million years. You really think that big a gap can be bridged in 4/5 years??

Let us not forget that new vinyls are very much a luxury purchase. They are- at least- double the price of a single CD.

[Facelift]

Never in a million years. You really think that big a gap can be bridged in 4/5 years??

It definitely will; it's not even really an argument. I'm talking about sales ($) not units, though that will eventually happen, too.

[JJ88]

^That's because of the price. No wonder the beleaguered music industry is pushing the format.

[Facelift]

^That's because of the price. No wonder the beleaguered music industry is pushing the format.

It will happen with units, too (I see Scott did specify that above and I didn't read it).

I think that there is an outside chance that the volume of individual units could be overtaken in 5 years, but it will probably take longer. Total sales (which is the only number that matters)? That's happening pretty soon. People are leaving the CD in droves and joining streaming services.

[JJ88]

I don't think vinyl sales will overtake CD sales unless the industry kills the latter altogether. I believe there will be enough 'specialists' (to use your term) to keep the CD a viable format for some time. Witness the industry's other current golden goose- the 'super deluxe' set.

[Birdy]

Nonsense. That will never happen. The rate of sales may increase more than CD, because, one could argue that the two mediums are on different arcs (vinyl, upward -- CDs, downward). But, there is no way the volume of vinyl units being sold will surpass CDs, unless the CD medium disappears altogether.

I'd have to ask why you think so. Our sales are 50/50 right now.

[JJ88]

Last year, 1.3 million vinyl albums were sold in the UK. As much of an improvement as it is, that doesn't really seem like that much to me...certainly not enough to rely on as a main revenue stream.

http://www.officialcharts.com/chart-...in-2015__8906/

Yes, it doesn't include second-hand sales but that has always been the case.

[Birdy]

I don't think vinyl sales will overtake CD sales unless the industry kills the latter altogether. I believe there will be enough 'specialists' (to use your term) to keep the CD a viable format for some time. Witness the industry's other current golden goose- the 'super deluxe' set.

Well, Super deluxe sets, limited editions and so on will always appeal to the super-fan, regardless of format. Sure there will be fans that will spend $650 on a box-set of ALL Dylan's sessions including his trips to the bathroom, but when we're talking general sales, it really looks like (with a drop of 32%) that the CD's days are numbered with the exception of special package releases and so on that will always sell to a degree. I've sold Dark Side Of The Moon 32 times on NEW vinyl this year as opposed to 3 times on CD. Arcade Fire's releases sell 20-1 here vinyl over CD. Just a few examples of what's happening. Part of it I think is that CD packaging and format have lost its appeal altogether, the same way that DVD's were really not very special when you can stream or download the film. In general, all CD's look more or less the same but with vinyl, the packaging and format are much more special. Young-ish people are discovering that the same way that people my age(I'm 54) did many years ago and quite a few people my age or a bit younger have rediscovered just that.

[ronmac]

I'd have to ask why you think so. Our sales are 50/50 right now.

50/50? Where are you getting that number?

3.6 percent of all albums sold in 2014 were on vinyl, totaling 9.2 million units.
CD units sold for 2014 was 140.8 million.

"Album" sales, in general have been down. But, streaming was up in a big way in 2014 with 78.6 billion audio streams to go with 85.3 billion video views.


http://www.rollingstone.com/music/ne...eport-20150108

[Facelift]

50/50? Where are you getting that number?

3.6 percent of all albums sold in 2014 were on vinyl, totaling 9.2 million units.
CD units sold for 2014 was 140.8 million.

"Album" sales, in general have been down. But, streaming was up in a big way in 2014 with 78.6 billion audio streams to go with 85.3 billion video views.


http://www.rollingstone.com/music/ne...eport-20150108

You should really look at the first half 2015 numbers.

The narrative at the end of 2013 and again 6 months ago was that vinyl's rate kept increasing because it was starting from a place so small, but that this would level off soon. It didn't level off in 2015.

You realize what the numbers will look like if the rates of increase for vinyl and decrease for CD in 2016 match that of 2015, right?

[ronmac]

You realize what the numbers will look like if the rates of increase for vinyl and decrease for CD in 2016 match that of 2015, right?

Yes, they still would be nowhere near 50/50

[Rune Blackwings]

Today I drove 25 miles to the Atlanta Record Show at an old run down Marriott in Atlanta. I have been to this numerous times in the past, and even sold off my own record collection back in the early 90s at this same show.
In the past, I have found some great items, sometimes at reasonable prices, but often at 25-50% above market value.
While I did find two vinyl albums in decent shape at reasonable prices, the vast majority of the offerings were in horrible shape and/or incredibly overpriced. I saw numerous original US releases of albums by UK artists for more than the current new 180G releases (Led Zeppelin and Pink Floyd for example). These were priced at 40.00 or more in only VG+ or less condition!
There were CDs available also, but the only decent ones were way overpriced.
The pricing was not my top complaint. The lack of organization by genre and/or alphabetically made crate digging very hit and miss. There were many vendors I completely passed over after less than 2 minutes of digging.
Another issue was no pricing. There was one vendor that had no prices and he told me just to ask if I wanted to know the price on something. He wanted 20.00 for a VG copy of Armageddon!

While I have enjoyed rediscovering vinyl, I have found that most old releases were of very poor quality even in unplayed condition. It doesn't help matters when it appears that many vendors bought entire collections at yard sales from homes that had mold or flooding problems. There is a new store in Alpharetta (Comeback Vinyl) that, while it does have its share of less than VG rated fodder, I have found that most of the pressings are very clean because they use a record cleaning machine.

From now on I will be purchasing new vinyl or selectively purchasing from local vendors that will properly organize and store their wares. I am fed up with looking through ragged and smelly collections.

never had his problem. I usually rack up a great bunch of deals with lots of stuff I like. Maybe it's the area.

my only reason I am not going to the record show this year has to do with the cost of going to Maryland Death Fest in May will set me back over a grand and several family events that put things in the air for me on planning. I plan to go again next year...unless I get another MDF 2015, which had four bands I really was gung ho to see at it. (MDF 2016 is costing me due to staying an extra night to attend all four days)

[Facelift]

Yes, they still would be nowhere near 50/50

It would be about 2.5 : 1 (assuming that 2nd half 2015 increase and decrease rates are the same as 1st half). Whether or not one considers that "near" 50/50 probably depends on where one is coming from. And that's just for next year. What about the year after that and then after that?

Regardless of whether you consider 2.5 : 1 to be near 50/50, it's a long, long way from 43 : 1 only four years ago.
http://riaa.com/media/06D7FA0A-8ADD-...630E697E9E.pdf


I don't understand why this conversation always results in irrational statements. Look at the historical numbers. If 2016 mirrors 2015, then vinyl units eventually passing CD units sold - and in the not too distant future - would appear to be a virtual certainty. It will principally be because of people abandoning the CD rather than people converting to LP, but the numbers suggest that we're headed toward 50/50 in due time.

[Birdy]

50/50? Where are you getting that number?

3.6 percent of all albums sold in 2014 were on vinyl, totaling 9.2 million units.
CD units sold for 2014 was 140.8 million.

"Album" sales, in general have been down. But, streaming was up in a big way in 2014 with 78.6 billion audio streams to go with 85.3 billion video views.


http://www.rollingstone.com/music/ne...eport-20150108

Where am I getting that number?? From my weekly/monthly/yearly sales totals from my cash register.

[ronmac]

It would be about 2.5 : 1 (assuming that 2nd half 2015 increase and decrease rates are the same as 1st half). Whether or not one considers that "near" 50/50 probably depends on where one is coming from.

It's 72/28. It's not anywhere near 50/50

Where am I getting that number?? From my weekly/monthly/yearly sales totals from my cash register.

But, those are YOUR sales and not indicative of the entire market, like we're discussing. You can't extrapolate your sales onto the entire market.

[spacefreak]

I have to disagree about the quality of the pressings though. While there are some defects as will happen with any manufacturing of this kind, I find most new pressings to be incredibly good.

Out of my personal experience the last 11/2 year, the percentage of faulty vs good pressings has increased. Only german pressing plants (as Pallas) seem to maintain a constant/standard high quality. I guess that the process of handling a freshly pressed vinyl while it is still HOT is the reason for most problems, as constant production does not allow reasonable time for cooling before final packaging.

With the plants I'm collaborating I'm always requesting to shrink wrap vinyls, two days after their pressing. I'm exagerating, but I like to be 100% sure of the cooling status.

[spacefreak]

50/50? Where are you getting that number?

Niche market sales (underground rock/electronic/some metal etc) are currently on the 70% LP - 30% CD scale. At least in Europe. Numbers confirmed at specialised record stores and are not including record fairs where vinyl sales are 90% over 10% CD ones.

What's happening on the mainstream market is of no interest to me. But with the music genres we are passionate for, vinyl is the definite winner.

[Trane]

It's between 4 and 5 to 1 so far this year. Vinyl has made some serious inroads. Vinyl is expected surpass CD sales within the next five years.

Get real, dude... you're just dishing the shit that Vinyl Nazis (also called CD holocausters ) are spewing through their totally skewed propaganda

Nonsense. That will never happen. The rate of sales may increase more than CD, because, one could argue that the two mediums are on different arcs (vinyl, upward -- CDs, downward). But, there is no way the volume of vinyl units being sold will surpass CDs, unless the CD medium disappears altogether.

exactly... the gap is still enormous, despite the opposite trends

I'd have to ask why you think so. Our sales are 50/50 right now.

OK for your specialist store, no-one will dispute that (at least I won't)... But you're not one of those chain store on Yonge Street... or our European FNAC or MediaMarkt or Saturn chain stores... Sure, they go vinyls as well, but if that fills 5% of their racks, that's because the format are very different.

But how many vinyls are Madona or Adele selling?? Zilch (or diddley/squat if you prefer )... Sure 60% of those sales are dematerialized, but the remaining 40% go entirely to CDs, those 40% still makes hundreds of thousands of CDs sold.

[Birdy]

Get real, dude... you're just dishing the shit that Vinyl Nazis (also called CD holocausters ) are spewing through their totally skewed propaganda



exactly... the gap is still enormous, despite the opposite trends





OK for your specialist store, no-one will dispute that (at least I won't)... But you're not one of those chain store on Yonge Street... or our European FNAC or MediaMarkt or Saturn chain stores... Sure, they go vinyls as well, but if that fills 5% of their racks, that's because the format are very different.

But how many vinyls are Madona or Adele selling?? Zilch (or diddley/squat if you prefer )... Sure 60% of those sales are dematerialized, but the remaining 40% go entirely to CDs, those 40% still makes hundreds of thousands of CDs sold.

Well in a way, that's exactly what I'm talking about. I never suggested that our store is indicative of the entire marketplace but popular music such as Madonna and Adele will be the first to disappear as "most" people that are into that type of stuff will be more and more swayed to just download or stream. But people that are more into the artistic side of things will have more appreciation for the whole package including the beautiful artwork etc. As far as Adele, we received the new release on Friday and the CD outsold the LP by 3-1 which I more or less expected, but some other(less popular genre) releases are outselling the CD, which is where we're headed. Eventually with CD's, the only way they will continue to see is in special packaging/deluxe artwork editions etc. One of the reasons the Adele sold so well is because it wasn't easily available through streaming companies so it kind of forced people into the stores. I saw people this weekend that I hadn't seen in years buying the Adele which proves to me that they are already gone as customers because they burn/download/steal everything else.