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Thread: COVID-19 Coronavirus Information and Discussion

  1. #201
    Member Gerhard's Avatar
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    This is lengthy, and does divert to other topics, but this guy seems to know what he's talking about, so I found it very eye opening (I don't think it has been posted here, apologies if I missed it).


    Edit - I see someone just posted a highlights version, this is the complete interview

  2. #202
    Quote Originally Posted by Scrotum Scissor View Post
    Hm. "Prog" related, but not to add to any incessant alarmism; Norway is currently one of the heaviest struck countries, and public anxiety here is pretty imminent. People are temporarily acquitted from jobs, daycare centers, schools, leisure events of any kind; pubs, bars, restaurants, cafés, canteens, cinemas, theatres, museums, even the police stations are effectively closed for general access. And the internet is, well, slow.
    As with South Korea and Germany, Norway and Sweden's mortality rates so far are giving important clues about the true mortality rate. There have been 0 deaths out of 734 cases in Norway and 1 death out of 684 in Sweden. Those can be added together for 1 death out of 1418 or about 0.1%, the same as the common flu and close to Germany's 0.2%. Even 1,400 cases is probably too small to know for sure what the mortality rate will be but well under 1% is extremely likely.

  3. #203
    ^The flip-side being, if other countries are announcing mortality rates of up to 3%, then that means the number of unreported cases is much higher.
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  4. #204
    Quote Originally Posted by ronmac View Post
    ^The flip-side being, if other countries are announcing mortality rates of up to 3%, then that means the number of unreported cases is much higher.
    Right.

  5. #205
    http://www.tcm.com/schedule/monthly....vmonthschedule

    Always a good place to spend some time.
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  6. #206
    Member wiz_d_kidd's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by yamishogun View Post
    As with South Korea and Germany, Norway and Sweden's mortality rates so far are giving important clues about the true mortality rate. There have been 0 deaths out of 734 cases in Norway and 1 death out of 684 in Sweden. Those can be added together for 1 death out of 1418 or about 0.1%, the same as the common flu and close to Germany's 0.2%. Even 1,400 cases is probably too small to know for sure what the mortality rate will be but well under 1% is extremely likely.
    Be careful with the math. You cannot simply divide the total deaths NOW by the total number of cases NOW. You have to account to the latency between acquiring the virus and death.

    For example, suppose that 10 people acquired the virus every week, and that it took 4 weeks for someone to die...
    Week 1: 10 people infected
    Week 2: 20 people infected
    Week 3: 30 people infected
    Week 4: 40 people infected, 5 die.
    Your math would say the death rate was 5/40 or 12.5%. But those 5 deaths resulted from 10 people who were infected 4 weeks ago, so the real rate is 5/10 = 50%. The difference between these calculations is even more distinct with exponential growth of infected people, rather than the linear growth in my example.

  7. #207
    Quote Originally Posted by wiz_d_kidd View Post
    Be careful with the math. You cannot simply divide the total deaths NOW by the total number of cases NOW. You have to account to the latency between acquiring the virus and death.

    For example, suppose that 10 people acquired the virus every week, and that it took 4 weeks for someone to die...
    Week 1: 10 people infected
    Week 2: 20 people infected
    Week 3: 30 people infected
    Week 4: 40 people infected, 5 die.
    Your math would say the death rate was 5/40 or 12.5%. But those 5 deaths resulted from 10 people who were infected 4 weeks ago, so the real rate is 5/10 = 50%. The difference between these calculations is even more distinct with exponential growth of infected people, rather than the linear growth in my example.
    Actually, epidemiologists do use simple division but that is only useful after a certain point for the reason you point out. The question is when you can start to use just deaths/cases. I don't think it is premature in South Korea (possible), it may be in Germany and could be too soon in Scandinavia. The evidence is strongly pointing at better news than worse news for the mortality rate, though.

  8. #208
    Moderator Duncan Glenday's Avatar
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    Courtesy of my friend Battema's Facebook post:

    Covid-Funny.jpg

    (Or substitute your favorite prog band...)
    Regards,

    Duncan

  9. #209
    Member StarThrower's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gerhard View Post
    This is lengthy, and does divert to other topics, but this guy seems to know what he's talking about, so I found it very eye opening (I don't think it has been posted here, apologies if I missed it).


    Edit - I see someone just posted a highlights version, this is the complete interview
    A wealth of great information here. Thanks!

  10. #210
    Member Zeuhlmate's Avatar
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    Denmarks borders for Norway, Sweden, Germany are closed from tomorrow to april 13.
    At the airport you will be asked to return.

    You can only visit familymembers from abroad if they are seriously ill.

  11. #211
    Just closed the local public schools for two weeks. We're in Western PA, and while there are a few dozen cases in PA, none are in this half of the state. We're only 50 miles from Ohio.
    "The White Zone is for loading and unloading only. If you got to load or unload go to the White Zone!"

  12. #212
    Quote Originally Posted by Interstellar View Post
    I was also thinking about taking time to finish a few books and watch some films. But my daughter's school will be closed at least for two weeks and I'm supposed to work at home, so I guess there will be other priorities.
    John E. Williams' Stoner.

    I attend regular showings of apartments around my neighbourhood, hoping to be able to buy one in a few years (and preferably before my youngest son gets too old to want his own room at his dad's). During this previous weekend I went to one only a few hundred yards from mine - in which the real-estate agent had left a copy of Stoner on one of the nightstands in the master bedrooms. My kid yelled out; "Look, dad, it's one of those seven books you're reading!" I promptly went to the propriator and announced my (silly) recognition, by which she appeared a bit bothered and bewildered. She didn't know the first damn thing about the book.

    A great, great one though. I'd say it's almost the middle aged rendition of The Catcher in the Rye.
    "Improvisation is not an excuse for musical laziness" - Fred Frith
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  13. #213
    Member Munster's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Scrotum Scissor View Post
    John E. Williams' Stoner. A great, great one though.
    I agree. But Butcher's Crossing by John Williams is, IMHO, just as good.
    We walked arm in arm with madness, and every little breeze whispered of the secret love we had for our disease

  14. #214
    Member Since: 3/27/2002 MYSTERIOUS TRAVELLER's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ronmac View Post
    The best advice I can give is to not listen to politicians and pundits; listen to doctors and scientists, because their only agenda is to keep us safe.
    ^^^^
    this

    anyone thinking this is just another Flu season, or downplaying this as a "hoax" is an absolute moron putting too many people in very real jeopardy
    Why is it whenever someone mentions an artist that was clearly progressive (yet not the Symph weenie definition of Prog) do certain people feel compelled to snort "thats not Prog" like a whiny 5th grader?

  15. #215
    Orcopian
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    Fascinating reading comments from around the world in this thread. Here in the uk we are being told to get on with life as normal unless we have symptoms and then to self isolate. Supermarket shelves are empty for things like toilet rolls, pasta, tinned food and anything with anti-bacterial in the name. Most sport is cancelled but gigs seem to be going ahead. I went to a local gig last night with approx 60 people, we were asked to give our contact details in case anyone subsequently presented with symptoms. Tomorrow night I’m still planning to see Lazuli in Chepstow, the gig still seems to be on, the venue is 300 plus capacity and I would guess the audience could be 100 max so hopefully we won’t be packed tight. Fish starts his tour tonight in Scotland, I was hoping to see him next Thursday in Cardiff if the tour gets that far, other commitments allowing. Next weekend the fusion festival takes place about 40 miles from me, I was planning to go Sunday to see magenta and lifesigns. The promoter has posted today that it’s still going ahead and is putting extra measures (hand gel, indivdual glasses etc) in place. He’s put a massive amount of work into this so I’d like to support it even thought I can’t do the whole weekend. I’m in a job where I’m mixing with 100’s of people daily so the risk of going to these gigs isn’t any worse than my daily life, but things could change quickly if the government change tack to match the rest of Europe.

  16. #216
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    Indications that UK policies are about to change (too late, IMO, even worse than USA):

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...navirus-u-turn

  17. #217
    Member Teddy Vengeance's Avatar
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    Greetings and good news from the Far East (Japan, in my case).

    The good news is China’s daily addition to the total case list today- a big, fat 1. The emphasis there now is blocking a return influx.

    South Korean new cases are dwindling as the whole country is following protocol (K Bruce may have more to say on this).

    Japan’s new cases numbers are dwindling too. The strict measures were put in a place a few weeks back. People here are very self disciplined and, with typical Japanese thoroughness, the site of every infection and the tracing of its route has been mapped out. Authorities here are not as heavy handed as in some Asian locales but they don’t need to be because almost everyone follows the recommended practices.

    Taiwan has maintained strict control and is being viewed as a model.

    I was in Vietnam recently, just before the shit hit the fan worldwide. They’d had zero cases for several weeks but when one wealthy socialite returned from Europe and tested positive they isolated and sprayed the entire neighborhood, tracked down every other business class traveller on the flight within a day and isolated the lot- including the hotels, even entire blocks, they were lodging at. The result? No new cases in the last 48 hours.

    Some reasons why hot, developing countries in Asia are not seeing huge numbers of cases:
    1. The virus is less sustainable in hot places.
    2. In Vietnam, Cambodia, Myanmar, Indonesia etc. most people don’t jet set around. They stay in or near their own cities.
    3. They have poor infrastructures which actually helps in this case because it means that very few take subways, rapid transit etc. most ride on motorbikes and scooters, the rich stay in cars. Compare this to NE Asia.
    4. Biggest ‘hot locale’ outbreaks have been in heavy intl transport centers, such as Singapore, Qatar, Dubai.
    5. These countries tend to be more susceptible to bacterial infections than viral due to lack of development. It appears that Covid is more of a rich mans virus.
    6. Alleged ‘Under reporting’ is not much of an issue (though I won’t dwell on that now)
    7. Most governments can and do carry out somewhat draconian or heavy handed dictates quickly and effectively.

    Bottom line is that we are seeing a ‘rock tossed into a puddle’ ripple effect. As the central impact recedes the outer ridges peak. That’s what we are seeing in the West now. Since the heavy measures in the West have been put in place in the last week we can expect it to follow the China pattern (syndrome) and dwindle in about 6-8 weeks. Watch the Asian new case figures — they’re your guide to the near future.

    Happy to answer questions on what it’s like on the ground here cuz I have LOTS of free time now...

  18. #218
    Moderator Poisoned Youth's Avatar
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    Great post. Thank you so much for your perspective. Keep us updated.
    WANTED: Sig-worthy quote.

  19. #219
    ^^ Yeah, thanks for that valuable post.
    "The White Zone is for loading and unloading only. If you got to load or unload go to the White Zone!"

  20. #220
    Outraged bystander markwoll's Avatar
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    I just got back from the local grocery, just to pick up some fruit and stuff. And to gawk.
    Things were about the same as around a big snow storm. I didn't look at the paper goods or cleaning supplies. Didn't need any.
    All the big jugs of vinegar were gone, as were the bananas.
    I asked the checkout clerk where the crazy was, he said it was last night.
    They had to call the police because some knuckleheads wanted to fight about something.

    My office is requiring telework for a rotating list or employees. Don't know how that is going to work out.
    They have cancelled court dates for a couple of weeks, traffic docket & misdemeanor cases.
    They want to continue with trials. Wheels of justice and all that.
    "It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it."
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  21. #221
    This probably means ARW won't tour this year.




































  22. #222
    Member Teddy Vengeance's Avatar
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    ^^^^
    Thanks.

    A few other cultural/local factors to keep in mind...

    While much of Asia has public hygiene issues (Japan and Singapore being notable exceptions, maybe Korea/Taiwan too) personal hygiene is taken very seriously (the Chinese spitting habit is an exception, much to the chagrin of its neighbors, but even that is changing). On the other hand, to many East Asians, public hygiene in the West is (mostly) exemplary but standard Western personal hygiene shocks many.

    Because Asia is crowded, social distancing requires some effort BUT the region does not have the handshake, hugging, kissing cultures found in the West and Middle East. These habits appear to be huge transmitters. Japanese prefer to keep a distance from any strangers if possible by cultural habit.

    Also, with the remarkable exception of mainland Chinese, most E. Asians do not behave boisterously, with whoops or shouts, which can serve as effective virus transmitters. The mainland Chinese penchant for LOUD boisterous behavior is actually the bane of surrounding countries. But cultures change because of things like pandemics (read Jared Diamond)... Westerners are also somewhat prone to boisterous public behavior...

    Korea and Japan also have the problem of being big group drinking cultures, unlike most of SE Asia. Some initial clusters in Japan have been traced to these gatherings. As a result, the many drinking dens in Japan are dead right now, or single drinkers are imbibing spaced several seats apart. Even though I live in a prefecture with only 1 reported case as of today, party culture is pretty close to zero.

  23. #223
    cunning linguist 3LockBox's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Teddy Vengeance View Post
    Also, with the remarkable exception of mainland Chinese, most E. Asians do not behave boisterously, with whoops or shouts, which can serve as effective virus transmitters. The mainland Chinese penchant for LOUD boisterous behavior is actually the bane of surrounding countries.... Westerners are also somewhat prone to boisterous public behavior...
    Blame Ric Flair

    Korea and Japan also have the problem of being big group drinking cultures, unlike most of SE Asia.
    Again, blame Ric Flair





    Woooohhh!!!!!!

  24. #224
    Member moecurlythanu's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ronmac View Post
    Just closed the local public schools for two weeks. We're in Western PA, and while there are a few dozen cases in PA, none are in this half of the state. We're only 50 miles from Ohio.
    And there are only 5 reported cases in Ohio so far.

  25. #225
    Quote Originally Posted by Teddy Vengeance View Post
    .. Westerners are also somewhat prone to boisterous public behavior...
    Compare the British, Germans, Spaniards and Italians - all within a pretty small area of Europe.

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