MLB 2019

[ronmac]

Good for the Nats. I usually root for the AL team, unless it's one of a couple. Before the series started, I was rooting for the "Stros. But, I found myself rooting for the Nats. I don't know if it's because they were the underdog or if it's because there's something I just don't like about the "Stros.

I wouldn't call it a great series because of the blowouts. But it was certainly entertaining and highly unusual, which is befitting of baseball.

The only real drawback of following this series was listening to Joe Buck, who just doesn't stop talking.

[Poisoned Youth]

Watch out for the Nats. They are 29-11 in their last 40 games and actually now have the 3rd best record in the NL.

As to who will win? It's too difficult to say. The NL is clusterf*ck besides the Dodgers and Braves. In the AL, all the top contenders from last year are in the race with the addition of the Twins and even the Rangers. I personally feel the Astros are still the team to beat, but felt that way last year as well.

In spite of the recent surge of the Brewers, I like the Nats in the NL matchup. Consider they were 8 games under .500 on June 1st. After their 81st game, they were 41-40. Their last 81 games, 52-27. They are now relatively healthy and ready to compete. If this were a series matchup, I'd even be more in their corner. With one game, anything can happen. So enter Mad Max. He's not a stellar postseason performer, but he's done competently well over the years. That all said, he hasn't exactly been stellar in the last few months.

I'm hoping for whichever team can beat Houston.

Very possible, but don't sleep on the Nats. They had that slow start, but as you can see from their last 100 games, they are toe to toe with the best teams in the league. They have 3 very reliable starters and scored the 2nd most runs in the NL.

Nats: 27-33 (first 60), 66-34 (last 100)
Yankees: 38-22 (first 60), 65-35 (last 100)
Astros: 40-20 (first 60), 67-33 (last 100)
Cards: 30-28 (first 60), 61-39 (last 100)

Go Nats!

You are proving to be rather sage sir!

Game 7 it is!

This turned out to be quite a fun series. And now we have a Schillingesque moment of sorts where Max Scherzer, one of the most successful pitchers of the decade, has a chance to play through an injury and be a hero. But he has to face Greinke, another one of the decade's best pitchers, who was wearing a Diamondbacks uniform 3 months ago.

would love for the Nats to take it just so we can have the visiting-team-wins-every-game WS in which nobody goes home happy

GO NATS! That was quite a game 7! Hinch made the wrong move, imo, of removing Greinke. He was at 80 pitches and was really frustrating the Nats hitters. That will haunt him.

It's a nice win for the team and the town here in DC. I'm especially happy for Ryan Zimmerman, who was the very first player the Nats drafted in their first year, 2005.

[Poisoned Youth]

Now it's time to fire up the HOT STOVE!

Also, Ron will be on suicide watch for a bit with baseball withdrawal symptoms. Pray for him.

[Poisoned Youth]

On another note, I was watching a bit of MLB network this morning and they were saying that Gerrit Cole could command a record setting contract as he's just about the best pitcher in baseball currently and the clear top FA on the market. The early buzz is that he will go to the Angels who have the need and are in SoCal (where Cole is rumored to want to play). But I think just about every team that can will check in. Maybe the Padres will jump.

But also in that MLB Network segment, they were throwing out the idea that you MUST have these great starting pitchers to win a WS as opposed to going all sabremetrics and trying to outsmart your opponents through 162 games and the playoffs. The suggestion was that teams like the A's and Rays are not built to make it through playoff series. Thoughts on that?

[NogbadTheBad]

Great performance by the Nats, you can't really argue with their results.

[MudShark22]

But also in that MLB Network segment, they were throwing out the idea that you MUST have these great starting pitchers to win a WS as opposed to going all sabremetrics and trying to outsmart your opponents through 162 games and the playoffs. The suggestion was that teams like the A's and Rays are not built to make it through playoff series. Thoughts on that

Including Strasburg, starting/relief pitchers have won 30 of the 64 WSMVPs handed out. Of those only 4 went to relief pitchers

So yes, having a crack SP staff can go a long way, IMO.

[Sputnik]

Congratulations to the Nationals, great and somewhat weird series!

But also in that MLB Network segment, they were throwing out the idea that you MUST have these great starting pitchers to win a WS as opposed to going all sabremetrics and trying to outsmart your opponents through 162 games and the playoffs. The suggestion was that teams like the A's and Rays are not built to make it through playoff series. Thoughts on that?

This was exactly my take on it when I read Moneyball 15+ years ago. In my mind, Sabermetrics works for hitting where despite common perceptions about "clutch" batters and all that, it's really a question of averages and runners on base. I think that is far less true for pitching, where I think you can "dig deep" to conjure a better performance when you really need it. The better the pitcher, the more likely you are to get that great performance. The A's, Rays, and some other teams have done a fantastic job competing in the jagged baseball financial landscape. But they haven't won it all in the playoffs in the "Moneyball" era, and I think the difference is pitching.

I fully support a Sabermetric approach to hitting where I think you can get virtually the same batting efficiency at a drastically reduced cost. But I think you need at least two, if not three, top quality starters and solid bullpen support to make a serious playoff run. And that costs money, unless you can somehow grow a generation of your own young players. But that's a tight window.

I think that's the formula we're likely to see with the new Red Sox GM, Chaim Bloom, and is to some extent where Cashman has taken the Yankees. It just makes sense.

Bill

[ronmac]

Now it's time to fire up the HOT STOVE!

Also, Ron will be on suicide watch for a bit with baseball withdrawal symptoms. Pray for him.

But they haven't won it all in the playoffs in the "Moneyball" era, and I think the difference is pitching.

Generally, I think that's true. In the case of the 2019 NYY, it was a lack of clutch hitting. Their pitching was fine.

[ronmac]

The speculation is that Cole will get a $300 Million contract. That's a lot of money and a long contract for a 29-year-old pitcher. He's in his prime, but how long will that last?

He grew up a life-long Yankees fan, but I think they are a long shot to sign him. They have some young arms in their system and a bloated Stanton contract. I expect them to go after some second-tier starters. They might have to work out a trade or two.

One must admit it's funny to look back at all the predictions, speculations and pontification.

[proggy_jazzer]

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/...-vs-twins-alds

Had dinner last night with good friends, one of whom went to high school with Cooper. He had just had knee surgery, and died from a blood clot that developed afterwards (not sure if in the hospital or later). Evidently the funeral (which was this past Monday) was attended by Joe Torre and 100 MLB umpires. She shared that she had known him since junior high school, and that, while he played some ball himself, he knew even at that age that what he wanted to be was a major league umpire. So, he did get to live his dream: he called three no-hitters, and umped in the 2014 (I believe) World Series. A very sad early demise, but he was doing exactly what he always wanted to do in his life, and was admired by his peers. We should all be so lucky.

[ledsox]

The thing about relievers is the volatility. Their performance is more variable as they usually have fewer out pitches to rely on than starters (see-Ottavino, Joe Kelly). Then there is the usage factor. You have to be really careful about not wearing them out.

The Royals in 2014-15 made it work (2 WS, 1 title) with their 3 headed monster out of the pen but I think the balance still has to be weighted on a strong rotation and then swinging one or more of those starters into the pen at times in the PS to bolster it like the last 3 champs have done.

What a win for the Nats. So happy for them as they were such a fun group to root for.

[JAMOOL]

when it comes down to it all you really *need* is luck, easy to make a run when you get hits with RISP while the other team doesn't. Astros got 8 hits & a handful of walks and could only plate two. meanwhile the Nats' 3rd hit of the night was a go-ahead dinger that hit the foul pole. I agree that having at least 2 top flight SPs and 2 lockdown relievers is key but the reality is anyone can beat anyone in this game. even the Marlins won 50 games this season.

(btw I know this post makes it sound like I'm grouchy about the Astros losing, so let me make it clear that I wanted the Nats to win the whole way, I'm only bummed cuz Zack is one of my favorite pitchers and it would've been cool to see him be the hero)

[Poisoned Youth]

Zack *was* the hero. Hinch was the villain.

[MudShark22]

Not a good time for Hinch to bust out his best Mickey Callaway impression

[JAMOOL]

idk I think the decision to pull Zack was fine, he was starting to miss his spots

not putting in Cole was the weird part. the explanation that they'd only put him in to "protect a lead" makes no sense to me. you do that during the regular season because you can only pitch guys so much and protecting a lead is more valuable than not giving up additional runs when you're losing. maybe they were saving him for Game 8

[ronmac]

not putting in Cole was the weird part. the explanation that they'd only put him in to "protect a lead" makes no sense to me. you do that during the regular season because you can only pitch guys so much and protecting a lead is more valuable than not giving up additional runs when you're losing. maybe they were saving him for Game 8

I didn't get it, either.

I was also surprised there wasn't immediate bullpen activity once Scherzer started to have problems. He made through five shaky innings. But, this is all-hands-on-deck time. You cannot afford to let the game get away too quickly by not having warm arms ready at a second's notice.

[Shadow]

not putting in Cole was the weird part. the explanation that they'd only put him in to "protect a lead" makes no sense to me. you do that during the regular season because you can only pitch guys so much and protecting a lead is more valuable than not giving up additional runs when you're losing. maybe they were saving him for Game 8

Buck Showalter did that the other year in a wildcard game by putting in Ubaldo Jimenez instead of Zack Britton. He should have been fired right after that game

[Guitarplyrjvb]

I thought Cole's postgame presser was revelatory. The guy is a self-centered a-hole who may have cost himself millions by his Scott Boras hat-wearing, "not an employee of the Astros", "I guess I'm representing myself" performance while surrounded by his heartbroken teammates (or former coworkers in Cole's parlance). What a mercenary.

[Tangram]

Now it's time to fire up the HOT STOVE!

Also, Ron will be on suicide watch for a bit with baseball withdrawal symptoms. Pray for him.

Hang in there ronmac, spring training is only 4 month away! PY, you have been on the Nats for a long time when they were considered dead and buried. Any suggestions for Lotto?

[ronmac]

Looks like Carlos Beltran will be the next Mets' manager.

Very smart move.

[NogbadTheBad]

I'd like to see him do well.

[Shadow]

Nationals Accuse Astros of Throwing Series To Avoid White House Visit

[ronmac]

[Poisoned Youth]

Strasburg opted out of his contract to renegotiate for more moolah. This is not surprising. Apparently the Nats will get first crack, but I’m sure Boras will be entertaining other offers.

Chapman signed a 1 year extension. It was smart for him to take that. I don’t know if he would find a better deal given his personal situation and increasing age. And for the Yankees it’s a very low key and light footprint move.

[JAMOOL]

https://twitter.com/Jomboy_/status/1...rc=twsrc%5Etfw

seems like a pretty big deal? Astros had by far the best K/BB ratio in the league, far enough away from 2nd place to be considered something of a statistical anomaly. I am guessing the Nats knew about this during the WS?