MLB 2018

[Facelift]

Cano, Francisco Cervelli and Melky Cabrera all worked closely with A-Rod during their Yankees days.

All have now been hit with PED suspensions.

I don't know what the full extent of "working closely" with A-Rod means, and how many other people were doing the same. Without knowing more, though, I'd say it's not likely coincidence.

[polmico]

Freddy Peralta, 21 year old Brewers pitcher, struck out 13 Rockies in 6 innings, becoming only the 5th pitcher in MLB history to strike out 13 or more in their MLB debut (Strasburg was the last). Brewers did ultimately win.

What made it really special is that he didn't know until yesterday that he would be called up to the show to start, and his mom, dad and gf came to CO from the Dominican, and other family flew in from NYC to see him start in AAA Saturday in CO Springs, and instead saw him strike out LeMahieu, Blackmon & Arenado in order in the 1st to start the game.

I can't help it if all this sh** keeps happening!

I think every baseball fan should be able to appreciate that one. I was watching on MLB (everyone's favorite Brian Kenny was in the studio) as he lost the no-hitter. He and Hader are both incredible early season stories.

You think the Brewers have enough to survive what looks to be one of the deepest divisions in baseball?

[ronmac]

I guess I find it a bid odd to blame Arod, who was a teammate five years ago, for Cano's current drug use. Are we to believe that Cano passed tests for four-plus seasons while using?

Once again, I am not defending Arod. I just find it odd that people are so quick to blame him as though Cano was some unsuspecting fool. I think it's much more plausible that Cano was trying to overcome his injuries and sagging numbers as a Mariner with a little help from Dr. Robert.

[progeezer]

I think every baseball fan should be able to appreciate that one. I was watching on MLB (everyone's favorite Brian Kenny was in the studio) as he lost the no-hitter. He and Hader are both incredible early season stories.

You think the Brewers have enough to survive what looks to be one of the deepest divisions in baseball?

Personally, I think they have to trade for at least a proven #2 starter, and preferably a #1, since IMO Chase A. is a good #3, and every other starter they have is hit or miss from game to game.

If they do decide to do this before the deadline, I sure hope they leave their bullpen alone, and instead dangle Santana & a high prospect together (if that's enough?), but I don't know if they can keep Hader, Jefferds and Knebel together if they want a quality starter.

Their offense and their bullpen (#2 in MLB right now behind the D Backs) is as good as anyone else's right now.

[ronmac]

So, doesn't an 80-game suspension for Cano indicate that he failed a previous test? Or did they change that rule?

[Facelift]

So, doesn't an 80-game suspension for Cano indicate that he failed a previous test? Or did they change that rule?

The punishment schedule is 80 / 162 / lifetime

This was a first offense.

[polmico]

Their offense [ . . . ] is as good as anyone else's right now.

Might want to check that.

OPS of .697 (11th . . . in NL).

168 runs (10th in NL).

That would be very concerning were I a fan (just like the Braves troubled 'pen is concerning for me, to say nothing of their up and down rotation). Looking at their lineup, it's tough for me to imagine where more runs, more production is going to come from. I guess hoping that Thames comes back and starts mashing every ball in site and Braun increases his productivity are legit hopes, but unless I'm missing something, it looks like they need another bat.

[progeezer]

Might want to check that.

OPS of .697 (11th . . . in NL).

168 runs (10th in NL).

That would be very concerning were I a fan (just like the Braves troubled 'pen is concerning for me, to say nothing of their up and down rotation). Looking at their lineup, it's tough for me to imagine where more runs, more production is going to come from. I guess hoping that Thames comes back and starts mashing every ball in site and Braun increases his productivity are legit hopes, but unless I'm missing something, it looks like they need another bat.

IF Thames comes back soon AND IF Braun doesn't miss half the season (a toss-up right now) then they need a starter more. With both Thames & Braun healthy at the same time (hasn't happened since early last year), they become a team with a deep quality bench (deeper than most).

Only an old man's opinion, but analytics never won a baseball game.

[polmico]

Only an old man's opinion, but analytics never won a baseball game.

On that point, we both agree. And you know more about what this team is capable of than I. But, in fairness, I didn't cite "analytics" numbers. Latter half of the pack in OPS and runs scored in the league is not particularly good.

Anyway, just trying to generate discussion away from Yanks. I'm fascinated by the NL Central, too. It feels like such a deep division, I've never been to any of the ballparks (I was in Chicago last year for Crimson and had to settle for a Sox game) and there's lots of superstars there, even the bad teams.

[ronmac]

Anyway, just trying to generate discussion away from Yanks.

It already was.

[NogbadTheBad]

Only an old man's opinion, but analytics never won a baseball game.

But have won World Series for Red Sox & Cubs.

[progeezer]

But have won World Series for Red Sox & Cubs.

How did they both do that without players, Ian?

[NogbadTheBad]

How did they both do that without players, Ian?

I'm pretty sure its both, or are you recommending they go out to play with zero strategy? Batters just hack away, pitchers don't research batters, fielders never move from standard positions?

[progeezer]

I don't think that preparation and research is useless. On the contrary, it's a necessity if you want to compete. I do think, however, that increasingly, wunderkind gurus like Epstein (& the Brewers Stearns as well among others), have detracted from, more than enhanced, the overall love of the game among its fans, which saddens me.

But opinions are indeed like assholes.

[DocProgger]

The Cubs won the World Series after a century of futility because they spent many years drafting at or near the top of the draft picking a slew of young stud players, and also spent a shitload of money trading for and/or signing high priced stars with virtually no limitation on the pursestrings (Lester, Arrietta, Lackey,Heyward, Zobrist, Chapman etc), unlike several other organizations in their division(total 2016 payroll--188 million/161 mill for 25 man roster) In other words, they finally got some real good players at the same time, not because Maddon or the Golden Boy is some kind of analytics guru. Even then, they also finally had some good luck, and were still a rain delay away from losing the thing, especially after the genius manager's questionable relief pitching choices.

[Scott Bails]

It's just a coincidence that Theo Epstein, analytics devotee, won a bunch of World Series championships for teams that hadn't won it all in over 100 years.

Yep. Analytics had nothing to do with it. Just sheer luck.

[DocProgger]

Never said it was just sheer luck--that ignores the bulk of my post. Golden Boy was given virtually unlimited power at the helm of two championship starved franchises both who also opened the bank vault for him to acquire the players he wanted with virtually no limitations. He's a good evaluator of talent and aggressive as hell. I'm sure part of that is analytics, but there have been great evaluators of talent and savvy powerful GMs for decades long before anyone ever heard of the magical "war" stat. See Branch Rickey for example.

[Scott Bails]

Your dismissal of analytics is amusing.

[ronmac]

Jeez, boys. I don't see an outright dismissal of analytics. I do see comments about the over-reliance on them and the under-reliance on the environmental variables and human nature of the game.

You have me defending DocProgger, for Chris-sakes!

Too many human factors come into a manager's decisions. We cannot undervalue that. Anyone who's objectively paying attention can see that it all plays a role. One can over-rely on numbers just like one can over-rely on following their gut. The sweet spot is somewhere in the middle.

[NogbadTheBad]

I think we are agreeing that its a mix. As usual we argue from extreme positions and then settle in the middle.

[DocProgger]

Your dismissal of analytics is amusing.

As stated above, I'm not completely dismissing analytics. But a lot of what passes for analytics is just a fancy schmantzy new age label for what used to be called "scouting". What used to be notes written in notebooks is now data collected on the computer, creating a cottage industry of amateur Bill James wanna-bes. Somewhere along the way it became trendy to hire whiz kid advanced degreed econ majors from chic universities as bball execs who have savvily marketed themselves into huge salaries because they supposedly understand cool phrases like "acquisition cost" and "asset control" better than old school bball guys.

Now if the Wonder Boy had actually gone to a franchise like San Diego, suddenly turned it around and won multiple championships on the limited payrolls they usually have in towns like that, I'd be much more impressed. I'm always amused that "Moneyball" got so much attention as a trailblazing way to run a team, and yet the A's never have even won a pennant under their whiz kid guru.

[Scott Bails]

Have you read Moneyball? It's explained why in the book.

[DocProgger]

Are you talking about the claim that other teams copied what they were doing and supposedly watered down their analytics advantage?

[ronmac]

As usual we argue from extreme positions...

Agreed.

...and then settle in the middle.

Not so sure about this part, though. I think we simply move on to other arguments. Everybody's right, ya know.

[Facelift]

Part of the problem when analytics is brought up is people not understanding what it means. It's just another tool to be used to evaluate talent and develop strategy. It is impossible to use analytics effectively in a vacuum. Also the use of analytics in strategy is to increase the chances of a positive outcome, which leads to more wins over time. Increasing the chances of a positive outcome definitely does not mean guaranteeing a positive outcome, which is why "but it didn't work!" is an ignorant argument to use against a seemingly unconventional move by a manager that was based on analytics. As long as the manager was properly using good data, whatever he did *will* work at a greater rate than the more conventional strategy. To use a very general example, using a player who gets on base 40% of the time for a player who gets on base 30% of the time will only "pay off" once every 10 at bats. The same outcome (on base vs. not-on-base) will occur between these two players in 9 out of 10 instances. Both of them will make out more often than any other outcome.

Managers who use analytics will do better over 162 games than a manager of the same team who did not, unless the one who did not was the beneficiary of luck to an unusual degree. Luck is a not-insignificant part of baseball, though, especially in small sample sizes. The luck factor is why most teams who make the post season have nearly equal chances to win the world series.