Thread: 2016 NCAA College Football

  1. #551
    Swap Georgia and Oklahoma, then. Both are in if they win anyway, and out if they're not. And the rankings that come a week from Tuesday will not rely upon this week's in any significant way. It hasn't any of the other years, so why start now?

  2. #552
    Quote Originally Posted by Facelift View Post
    Swap Georgia and Oklahoma, then. Both are in if they win anyway, and out if they're not. And the rankings that come a week from Tuesday will not rely upon this week's in any significant way. It hasn't any of the other years, so why start now?
    It's false to say the rankings don't matter at all because where Bama is placed is crucial. The nightmare scenario for the B10 still exists that they get no teams in--if they take the SEC champ and Bama. Less likely (but arguably possible)if Wisc wins but very possible if Ohio St wins. The irony there would be they would be taking a 1 loss team that didn't win their conference over a 2 loss conference champion, which is exactly what happened last year when Ohio Sr got picked over Penn St. The difference this year is that they would be picking 2 teams from same conference and bumping another conference out in the process. If Bama is still ranked 3rd or 4th this week, that's a clue. There will be a huge push from the SEC media machine to not exclude Bama, and that a 1 loss Bama that stubbed its toe on the road vs Auburn is still better than even an unbeaten Wisconsin. You know, "eye test" and all that.

    Also, if TCU beats Oklahoma, then does TCU get in, does a 2 loss Oklahoma that already beat TCU once still get in, or does that open door for a 2 loss Ohio St or a 1 loss Bama? So how high Okla is placed probably matters.
    Last edited by DocProgger; 11-26-2017 at 10:06 AM.

  3. #553
    Quote Originally Posted by DocProgger View Post
    It's false to say the rankings don't matter at all because where Bama is placed is crucial. The nightmare scenario for the B10 still exists that they get no teams in--if they take the SEC champ and Bama. Less likely (but arguably possible)if Wisc wins but very possible if Ohio St wins. The irony there would be they would be taking a 1 loss team that didn't win their conference over a 2 loss conference champion, which is exactly what happened last year when Ohio Sr got picked over Penn St. The difference this year is that they would be picking 2 teams from same conference and bumping another conference out in the process. If Bama is still ranked 3rd or 4th this week, that's a clue. There will be a huge push from the SEC media machine to not exclude Bama, and that a 1 loss Bama that stubbed its toe on the road vs Auburn is still better than even an unbeaten Wisconsin. You know, "eye test" and all that.

    Also, if TCU beats Oklahoma, then does TCU get in, does a 2 loss Oklahoma that already beat TCU once still get in, or does that open door for a 2 loss Ohio St or a 1 loss Bama? So how high Okla is placed probably matters.
    As I said above, TCU has no path to getting in, even if they beat Oklahoma. Oklahoma has no path to getting in if they lose to TCU. Wisconsin has no path to getting if they lose, even if they are ranked No. 1 on Tuesday. Auburn has no path to getting in if they lose, even if they are ranked No. 1 on Tuesday (which some speculate they will be). The final playoff teams and seeding have nothing to do with where they are ranked on Tuesday. Tuesday's rankings have no bearing on the following week's rankings.

    It is possible for the Big 10 to get no teams in, but this won't have anything to do with where Ohio State or Wisconsin are ranked this week. We have seen teams drop from the penultimate rankings in the final rankings even when they won. The committee has been clear that the rankings are determined on a week-to-week basis anew, and that the previous rankings aren't factored in.
    Last edited by Facelift; 11-26-2017 at 12:52 PM.

  4. #554
    Quote Originally Posted by Facelift View Post
    As I said above, TCU has no path to getting in, even if they beat Oklahoma. Oklahoma has no path to getting in if they lose to TCU. Wisconsin has no path to getting if they lose, even if they are ranked No. 1 on Tuesday. Auburn has no path to getting in if they lose, even if they are ranked No. 1 on Tuesday (which some speculate they will be). The final playoff teams and seeding have nothing to do with where they are ranked on Tuesday. Tuesday's rankings have no bearing on the following week's rankings.

    It is possible for the Big 10 to get no teams in, but this won't have anything to do with where Ohio State or Wisconsin are ranked this week. We have seen teams drop from the penultimate rankings in the final rankings even when they won. The committee has been clear that the rankings are determined on a week-to-week basis anew, and that the previous rankings aren't factored in.
    Lmao. According to who? You? When did you take the chair of the CFP committee? Your penchant for speaking in absolutist black and white terms is hilarious and torpedoes any semblance of logic. Your pronouncements that the rankings have no relevance and that certain teams "have no path to get in" are silly. Where Bama is ranked is a huge factor in whether the B10 gets shut out. Your absolutist assumption that a 2 loss Oklahoma has no chance of getting in over say Ohio St, who they beat head to head, fails to recognize reality. Just because you don't think something will happen does not mean there isn't a possibility of it happening.
    I would stay away from Vegas--they love people who bet only in absolutist black and white terms.

  5. #555
    Highly Evolved Orangutan JKL2000's Avatar
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    Hopefully these guys are caught in an endless loop...

  6. #556
    Quote Originally Posted by DocProgger View Post
    Lmao. According to who? You? When did you take the chair of the CFP committee? Your penchant for speaking in absolutist black and white terms is hilarious and torpedoes any semblance of logic. Your pronouncements that the rankings have no relevance and that certain teams "have no path to get in" are silly. Where Bama is ranked is a huge factor in whether the B10 gets shut out. Your absolutist assumption that a 2 loss Oklahoma has no chance of getting in over say Ohio St, who they beat head to head, fails to recognize reality. Just because you don't think something will happen does not mean there isn't a possibility of it happening.
    I would stay away from Vegas--they love people who bet only in absolutist black and white terms.
    I told you what the source of my information was. Give me a scenario and I'll run it for you and tell you what the percentages for each teams are. I've already run every combination, and the content of my previous post gives every possible scenario.

    And I'll reiterate that where teams rank this week means absolutely zero for the final rankings. If you think otherwise, then you haven't been paying attention to the previous playoff rankings.

  7. #557
    Dilly dilly!

  8. #558
    Geriatric Anomaly progeezer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DocProgger View Post
    Dilly dilly!


    If OSU is favored by more than 8, there will be a shit ton of Badger money on this game.
    "My choice early in life was either to be a piano player in a whorehouse or a politician, and to tell the truth, there's hardly any difference"

    President Harry S. Truman

  9. #559
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    Quote Originally Posted by progeezer View Post


    If OSU is favored by more than 8, there will be a shit ton of Badger money on this game.
    Opening line was Badgers -1.5.

  10. #560
    Geriatric Anomaly progeezer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SteveSly View Post
    Opening line was Badgers -1.5.
    MY word! A small modicum of respect.
    "My choice early in life was either to be a piano player in a whorehouse or a politician, and to tell the truth, there's hardly any difference"

    President Harry S. Truman

  11. #561
    Quote Originally Posted by DocProgger View Post
    Dilly dilly!
    Now we know you're just trolling and have nothing substantive to offer.

    If what I wrote was so laughably wrong, then offer a scenario that you believe would result in a different conclusion.

  12. #562
    Quote Originally Posted by SteveSly View Post
    Opening line was Badgers -1.5.
    The opening line on the Big 10 championship game is Ohio State -6.

    Other lines of note:

    Oklahoma -7 over TCU
    Clemson -9 over Miami
    USC -3 over Stanford
    Auburn -3 over Georgia
    Central Florida -8 over Memphis

  13. #563
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    Quote Originally Posted by Facelift View Post
    The opening line on the Big 10 championship game is Ohio State -6.

    is
    Not sure where I found that Wis -1.5 opening line, but obviously I was incorrect. I did see it somewhere though......weird......

  14. #564
    Geriatric Anomaly progeezer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SteveSly View Post
    Not sure where I found that Wis -1.5 opening line, but obviously I was incorrect. I did see it somewhere though......weird......
    And here I thought I could trust your infallibility.
    "My choice early in life was either to be a piano player in a whorehouse or a politician, and to tell the truth, there's hardly any difference"

    President Harry S. Truman

  15. #565
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    Quote Originally Posted by progeezer View Post
    And here I thought I could trust your infallibility.
    Big mistake!

  16. #566
    Quote Originally Posted by Facelift View Post
    The opening line on the Big 10 championship game is Ohio State -6.

    Other lines of note:

    Oklahoma -7 over TCU
    Clemson -9 over Miami
    USC -3 over Stanford
    Auburn -3 over Georgia
    Central Florida -8 over Memphis
    Some of the lines have moved since yesterday. Money is coming in on Georgia, Clemson and Ohio State:

    Auburn -2.5 over Georgia
    Clemson -9.5 over Miami
    Ohio St. -6.5 over Wisconsin

  17. #567
    Geriatric Anomaly progeezer's Avatar
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    It's seems that there is no longer any talk at all (except perhaps here) of Bucky not getting in with a win Saturday. They're #3 in the polls now and their BCS computer ranking is now #1.
    "My choice early in life was either to be a piano player in a whorehouse or a politician, and to tell the truth, there's hardly any difference"

    President Harry S. Truman

  18. #568
    Quote Originally Posted by progeezer View Post
    It's seems that there is no longer any talk at all (except perhaps here) of Bucky not getting in with a win Saturday. They're #3 in the polls now and their BCS computer ranking is now #1.
    If Ohio State and Oklahoma both win, Alabama and Ohio State are being given a nearly identical chance of getting in as the final team, according to the fivethirtyeight.com probability generator. I personally think that the committee goes with Alabama in that scenario, but we'll have to see.

  19. #569
    cunning linguist 3LockBox's Avatar
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    No way does OSU have any business being in the playoffs, not with the drubbing they got against an unranked Iowa team. They shouldn't be able to jump over Oklahoma even if the Sooners lose Saturday.

  20. #570
    Quote Originally Posted by 3LockBox View Post
    No way does OSU have any business being in the playoffs, not with the drubbing they got against an unranked Iowa team. They shouldn't be able to jump over Oklahoma even if the Sooners lose Saturday.
    Exactly, spot on. Oklahoma beat up Ohio St AT Ohio St. If they both have 2 losses, the logical tiebreaker is head to head. Especially given the fact that the so called "Big 12 Championship" is a redundant silly waste of time game added on by the Big 12 for fear that they were losing spots at the playoff table because they didn't have a 13th game. Okla already beat TCU decisively--why should they have to do it twice? And if TCU squeaks out a win in a close game, what does that prove? They would be 1-1 against each other. Talk about irrelevant, this B12 game is silly. I almost hope TCU wins and then is kept out of the CFP, once again shutting out the B12--teach them a lesson. But I don't want to see Ohio St or Bama in even more.

    Sometimes it helps to watch actual real football games with your own eyes and use a little logic, as opposed to those who rely on computer generated betting sites to draw black and white absolutist conclusions.
    Last edited by DocProgger; 11-28-2017 at 07:02 PM.

  21. #571
    Quote Originally Posted by DocProgger View Post
    What I predict the rankings will be Tues:

    1. Clemson
    2. Oklahoma
    3. Auburn
    4. Wisconsin
    5. Alabama
    6. Georgia
    7. Miami
    8. Ohio St
    1. Clemson
    2. Auburn
    3. Oklahoma
    4. Wisconsin
    5. Alabama
    6. Georgia
    7. Miami
    8. Ohio St

    Other than switching Auburn/Okla at 2/3, I had the top 8 spot on. Bama being placed at 5 and not 3 or 4 is highly relevant to how comm. views Bama's season, and is good news for Wisc of course. Now we know Bama only has a chance if one (or more) of the top 4 teams lose ahead of them.

    And of course, Herbie the Shill is still on TV trying to convince people to forget Ohio St's assraping vs unranked Iowa.

    No computer generated programs were used or harmed in the making of my predictions.

  22. #572
    Member moecurlythanu's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DocProgger View Post
    Now we know Bama only has a chance if one (or more) of the top 4 teams lose ahead of them.
    It may play out that way, but it's technically not correct. One week's rankings have no effect on the next week's rankings, nor do prior rankings determine placement in the CFP. This has been plainly stated by members of the committee, and may be in their bylaws. What the ranking does do, is provide a window into the committee's current line of thought, and thus might end up reflecting their final choices, but it doesn't have to. Still, if one were predicting...

  23. #573
    Quote Originally Posted by moecurlythanu View Post
    It may play out that way, but it's technically not correct. One week's rankings have no effect on the next week's rankings, nor do prior rankings determine placement in the CFP. This has been plainly stated by members of the committee, and may be in their bylaws. What the ranking does do, is provide a window into the committee's current line of thought, and thus might end up reflecting their final choices, but it doesn't have to. Still, if one were predicting...
    The weekly rankings give us insight into how the comm is thinking and gives us a clue as to what they deem is important, as I've said before. Never said they were static--obviously as games are played different factors must be considered, SOS changes etc. If Bama was ranked ahead of say Okla and Wisconsin right now, that presents a whole slew of wildcard factors not present if Bama is ranked at 5 as they are now. If the top 4 teams all win their conference championships, while Bama does not play a game and wins no Conf champ, there is no way any of those top 4 will drop below Bama. Everyone on the CFP show, including Bama alum Rece Davis, said exactly that. That's the one firm conclusion that is safe to draw.

    What would NOT be automatically safe to assume is:

    1. That Clemson would not make it in if they lose. Their résumé is so strong that a close loss to Miami might still get them in along with Miami if there is another upset (ie TCU or Ohio St win).

    2. That the Big 10 champ is automatically in. Ohio St win does not guarantee them a spot, no matter how hard Herbie now tries to emphasize importance of winning B10 Conf champ, the reverse of his position last year when Penn St won B10 and beat OSU head to head.

    3. That a loss by Oklahoma automatically knocks them out. As posted above, someone try to convince me that if TCU wins a close game, that Ohio St would deserve a spot over Oklahoma (or TCU). Closer call btw Bama and Okla then, but neither would be Conf champs.
    Last edited by DocProgger; 11-28-2017 at 08:47 PM.

  24. #574
    Quote Originally Posted by DocProgger View Post
    1. Clemson
    2. Auburn
    3. Oklahoma
    4. Wisconsin
    5. Alabama
    6. Georgia
    7. Miami
    8. Ohio St

    Other than switching Auburn/Okla at 2/3, I had the top 8 spot on. Bama being placed at 5 and not 3 or 4 is highly relevant to how comm. views Bama's season, and is good news for Wisc of course. Now we know Bama only has a chance if one (or more) of the top 4 teams lose ahead of them.

    LOL. Alabama's ranking today means zero. They could still be the No. 1 overall seed.

  25. #575
    Quote Originally Posted by DocProgger View Post
    The weekly rankings give us insight into how the comm is thinking and gives us a clue as to what they deem is important, as I've said before. Never said they were static--obviously as games are played different factors must be considered, SOS changes etc. If Bama was ranked ahead of say Okla and Wisconsin right now, that presents a whole slew of wildcard factors not present if Bama is ranked at 5 as they are now. If the top 4 teams all win their conference championships, while Bama does not play a game and wins no Conf champ, there is no way any of those top 4 will drop below Bama. Everyone on the CFP show, including Bama alum Rece Davis, said exactly that. That's the one firm conclusion that is safe to draw.

    What would NOT be automatically safe to assume is:

    1. That Clemson would not make it in if they lose. Their résumé is so strong that a close loss to Miami might still get them in along with Miami if there is another upset (ie TCU or Ohio St win).

    2. That the Big 10 champ is automatically in. Ohio St win does not guarantee them a spot, no matter how hard Herbie now tries to emphasize importance of winning B10 Conf champ, the reverse of his position last year when Penn St won B10 and beat OSU head to head.

    3. That a loss by Oklahoma automatically knocks them out. As posted above, someone try to convince me that if TCU wins a close game, that Ohio St would deserve a spot over Oklahoma (or TCU). Closer call btw Bama and Okla then, but neither would be Conf champs.
    1. Clemson has zero chance to make it in if they lose.
    2. I don't think anybody has ever said that Ohio st. was in if they won. They will be in if they win and Oklahoma loses, however, regardless of whatever else happens. That much we do know.
    3. Of course Oklahoma is out out if they lose. Nobody with a clue ever thought otherwise.

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